Approximately 1400 kilometers away from the Russo-Ukrainian war, and with developments unfolding as a result of this conflict, an old tension between Russia and its neighbors, particularly the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), seems to be taking on a new dimension.
In an unprecedented move in Russian history, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs issued an arrest warrant against the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, placing her on a wanted list without specifying the charges.
This decision represents a new form of Russian escalation and a direct message to the West and NATO. But why?
It is important to understand that the tension between Russia and Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which border the Baltic Sea, has lasted for over 100 years. The three Baltic countries were part of the Soviet Union until they gained their independence between 1990 and 1991.
Since then, these small nations have preferred openness to the West over the East, achieved rapid economic growth, attracted foreign investments, and strengthened their joint defense and security cooperation. Additionally, in 2004, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined the European Union and NATO, becoming members of the Eurozone.
Today, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is growing concern among the Baltic states about being the next targets after Ukraine, especially since 25% of Estonia and Latvia's populations are of Russian origin. These countries fear that Moscow might exploit and arm these minorities.
Along Lithuania's borders lies the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which includes the only Russian port not subject to snow throughout the year. Russia claims that Lithuania has taken part of the territory belonging to it.
Therefore, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania are among the countries that have supported Ukraine in its war against Russia and have reinforced NATO forces on their territories as members of the alliance.
But why the decision to arrest the Prime Minister of Estonia? Simply because Putin sees Kallas as the most rigid among the Baltic states, and she had previously expressed readiness to take over as NATO Secretary General. She also stated that she would demand the allocation of 0.25% of the gross domestic product to arm Ukraine and ban tourist visas for Russians.
Moreover, Putin considers Estonia's attempts to interfere in Russian elections through campaigns on social media.
This Russian decision may not affect Kallas's political career internally, within NATO, or the European Union, but it may enable Russia's allied or proximate countries to arrest the Prime Minister of Estonia and take her to Russia. Additionally, this decision serves as a means for Russia to incite Russian minorities in the Baltic states against them, and who knows if the Ukrainian scenario might be repeated.
Therefore, this new Russian decision against the Prime Minister of Estonia is not only an escalation towards the Baltic states but also towards NATO led by the West. Will Putin dare to ignite tensions on the doorstep of the Baltic states, despite previously stating that there were no plans to wage war against a NATO member state?