France's diplomatic efforts: Separating Lebanon's presidential elections from Gaza war

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

France has been striving to decouple the issue of Lebanon's presidential election from the ongoing war in Gaza and its impact on southern Lebanon. This was conveyed by French President Emmanuel Macron to former Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt during their recent meeting in Paris. 

Will France's efforts succeed?

French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian is set to visit Beirut for the fifth time next Tuesday and Wednesday, aiming to present new proposals to break the deadlock in Lebanon's political crisis. 

While the details of these proposals remain unclear, there are indications that they might include a suggestion for a Lebanese-Lebanese dialogue hosted by Paris, should it prove difficult to hold such talks in Beirut.

Sources indicate that Le Drian supports the Quintet's proposal, which advocates for consecutive sessions and consultations instead of a full-fledged dialogue. Given that Lebanon's crisis is political rather than constitutional, meetings between rival factions within national institutions are considered more effective than external discussions.

Le Drian's visit to Beirut, where he will meet with senior officials, key political figures, and parliamentary bloc leaders, follows a phone call between President Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which partially addressed Lebanon's presidential issue.

Le Drian is expected to report the outcomes of his visit to President Macron, who will discuss them with US President Joe Biden during Biden's visit to Paris on June 6. Both leaders agree on the need to prevent the escalation of Israel's war on Lebanon and emphasize the importance of electing a president for Lebanon.

The return of US envoy Amos Hochstein to the region may also be linked to the outcomes of Le Drian's forthcoming visit to Lebanon.

Despite the Quintet raising its voice, there has been no echo of its calls within Lebanon. The discussions focus on qualifications without naming candidates, and a majority of Lebanese MPs lack a clear vision for resolving the crisis, disagreeing on whether to pursue dialogue or consultation.

As long as Gaza remains inflamed, the southern front will remain tense, and Lebanon will remain without a president. The issue is on the agenda of the major powers, and the time for a resolution has not come yet, despite denials from Lebanese MPs.