Hezbollah-Israel Conflict: Uncertain Escalation and the Quest for Deterrence

A report by Lara al-Hachem, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine

No one can predict the outcome of the escalating conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah is continuing to link the southern front with Gaza, and the specifics of hostage exchange deal remain unclear.

This deal is being negotiated in Cairo and Doha under significant American pressure, with a target date of July 24th, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to the US Congress.

Meanwhile, the war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah continues, with Hezbollah aiming to establish a balance of deterrence.

Israel is among the world's most heavily armed nations in terms of military equipment, quantity, and technological advancement. Aware of this, Hezbollah seeks to achieve a psychological victory to deter Israel from a full-scale war. Thus, Hezbollah has advanced its technological capabilities, showcasing some during the "Al-Aqsa Flood" through drone and smart missile warfare.

Military science indicates that each side in any conflict reveals only a small portion of its capabilities, reserving surprises. In terms of psychological warfare, even if Israel eliminates Hezbollah leaders, the party believes it can endure due to its combat doctrine.

Both sides are engaged in a fierce conflict. While Israel continuously threatens to wage war on Lebanon, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vows an unbounded response.
This effort to create a balance of terror aims to prevent war escalation but has not stopped the displacement of thousands of residents on both sides of the border.