Will there be an Arab initiative toward Lebanon soon? The answer to this question still needs much information from the countries concerned with the Lebanese file. But what is sure is that Lebanon's influential countries and stakeholders are conducting their investigations and are looking at what can be done in the next phase. Among these investigations comes the visit of the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, to Beirut, who indicated that the presidential entitlement must be completed and a President of the Republic must be elected. He also stressed the need for dialogue between the Lebanese.
Regional concerns
In addition to the positions taken by the Secretary-General of the Arab League, sources that are following up on the issue indicated that numerous contacts are taking place between Lebanese officials and officials of the Arab League, including the Assistant Secretary-General of the League, as part of the preparation of a general vision of the political situation and divisions between parliamentary blocs and political forces, and ways to make breakthrough.
According to diplomatic sources, the primary solution depends on the Lebanese willingness to work out of the crisis and seek political and economic solutions; this will receive a clear Arab support. But, the Lebanese must take the initiative. Lebanon's dossier can be present at the table of all concerned and interested States should there be any new progress on the way out of the crisis.
Besides, there is a view that all regional countries are busy with files of broader importance than Lebanon, which applies to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United States of America, and Iran. However, this preoccupation does not prevent that any tiny proportion of attention could be given to Lebanon.
French initiative
Internally, and in the absence of any serious indications of political movement between opposing forces, there are multiple bets on the external role, whether by the Arab League or by the French movement, as Paris expands the margin of its contacts, particularly with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to a French diplomatic source for "al-Modon."
That expands Lebanon's bets on any external role capable of helping and achieving progress. Bets reach the limits of wishes, appeals, and demands for regional countries to play a role on the Lebanese scene to foster any agreement or settlement. Hence, talks come of the possible expansion of the scope of coordination meetings between several Western and Arab countries, particularly the Gulf States, to explore what can be achieved.
Pressures on Iran
In parallel with these Lebanese appeals and wishes, the region continues to experience “a boiling state” in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian war. While endeavors are being carried out to renew the Iranian-Saudi dialogue.
However, pressure is increasing on Tehran, whether by Israelis or by Americans and Europeans, against the backdrop of the position on Russia's war in Ukraine, and what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently said during his visit to the United States of America and before the Congress.
Zelenskiy accused Tehran of military support for Russia and involvement in this war, which called for a swift Iranian response.
This would also increase the pressure on Tehran, as opposed to continuing attempts for calm and to activate the Saudi-Iranian dialogue on the one hand or to return to the nuclear deal negotiations on the other.
It is worth mentioning here that many Lebanese consider that, in the case of a positive development in Tehran's communication with the West and the Gulf States, it would indeed reflect in a calm in Lebanon, that could be a base to start seeking compromise. However, according to Lebanese sources, this is still far away and needs time.