There has been a lot of analysis and speculation surrounding the visit of the head of the "Marada Movement," Sleiman Frangieh, to Paris.
Some have gone so far as to say that Frangieh has become president with French support in exchange for French guarantees to Saudi Arabia that was wrested from Frangieh by the administration of President Emmanuel Macron.
These guarantees relate to Lebanon's relationships with Arab countries and the need to prevent Lebanon from becoming a platform for attacking Riyadh and other Arab capitals and ensuring balance in governance.
Macron faces an uprising at home and is trying to secure a seat among advanced countries amidst all this confusion. However, the French president is also working to achieve economic gains and sees Lebanon as a vast arena for investment.
Elderly people still pass on the rumor that France, which was "mandated" to govern Lebanon, exploited its resources in the early years of its rule, particularly by exploring for gold in archaeological sites and transporting it to Paris to improve its own financial situation, mainly as it had just emerged from World War I and was suffering from a severe economic crisis.
Suchlike today, the "Coronavirus" crisis, recession, and inflation in France and Europe, as well as the Russian-Ukrainian war and its consequences, are factors that have made Macron search for additional income and foreign investments, thus drawing his attention to Lebanon, a country that its rulers have already plundered.
The Macron administration considers Hezbollah to be the strongest Lebanese party, which is why it can strike a deal with it to promote its candidate and, at the same time, maintain its relationship with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
This is where the promotion of guarantees to be given to Riyadh began.
In this context, diplomatic sources confirm to "Nidaa al-Watan" that all that is being said about French guarantees is unrealistic, as guarantees require military or financial power to guarantee them, which France lacks in 2023.
How can France guarantee the behavior of Frangieh when it could not guarantee the behavior of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri after his resignation and departure from Saudi Arabia in November 2017?
On the other hand, those who follow Frangieh's political path know of his inability to provide strategic guarantees because his reference point is Hezbollah, and the party can do so.
As for the domestic front, how can Frangieh give the government legislative power to implement an agreement with the International Monetary Fund when he is represented in the parliament by only two deputies?
How can the government be the guarantee when Frangieh's political team can overthrow it at any time, as happened with Hariri's government in 2011, even though the "Doha Agreement" sponsored it?
The fundamental question is: What has France offered Lebanon since 2002, especially in light of the devastating economic crisis after 2019?
Numbers and facts reveal that France's interests in Lebanon are much more significant than Lebanon's interests in France.
Amid the severe economic crisis, exports have become the primary outlet for Lebanese people to secure hard currency.
However, the numbers indicate that France ranks last regarding its imports from Lebanon.
Lebanon exports 30% of its production to the Gulf, 9% to Switzerland, 5% to Greece, and 4% to the United States, while France, previously known as the "loving mother," imports no more than 1.45% of Lebanon's exports.
As for France's benefit from Lebanon, it is countless.
For example, the acquisition of the terminal container operation contract in Beirut port by a French company, exploration for gas, postal services, and before all that, one of the two mobile phone companies.
The most important of all is the attachment of a broad segment of Lebanese people to maintaining French culture and language.
Given all these facts, guarantees fall apart, as those who lack power cannot make political promises.
The "resistance" team may indeed commit at the beginning of the road. Still, at any moment when the Saudi-Iranian agreement collapses, this team will return to its previous practices. At that point, Macron's administration will have secured its interests at the expense of the interests of the Lebanese people.