The political scene in Lebanon is awaiting the arrival of the special envoy of the French President and former Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, to Beirut next week on a mission in search of exits to end the vacancy in the presidency, which was included the agenda of the Saudi-French summit that was held between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and President Emmanuel Macron.
This article was originally published in, translated from the Arab outlet of Asharq Al-Awsat.
Meanwhile, an Arab diplomatic source excluded that Le Drian would bring with him a set of ideas to stop the persistence in obstructing the election of a president, according to Asharq Al-Awsat.
The Arab diplomatic source said that Le Drian would raise, in his meetings with political leaders and some religious figures, a set of questions to explore the reasons behind the continued obstruction of the election of a president and the steps required to be taken to restore order to constitutional institutions.
The same source reveals that the tour of the French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, to a number of political leaders, remained under the roof of informing them of the date of Le Drian's arrival without going into details about the ideas he would bring with him.
Although there are those who rule out his initiative to put forward new ideas to save the French initiative.
He tells Asharq Al-Awsat that he will ask a set of questions and prefers to listen to those he will meet to submit his report to French President Macron to take what he deems appropriate.
The source confirms that Le Drian seeks to mend the rift that afflicted Paris' historical relationship with Christians, specifically with the majority of Christian blocs that refused to proceed with the initiative it launched by adopting the candidacy of the head of the Marada Movement, former MP Sleiman Frangieh, for the presidency, under the pretext that he is the easiest candidate to end the presidential vacancy, in exchange for appointing the former ambassador Nawaf Salam to form the government.
The same source believes that Paris' siding with Frangieh, and from the point of view of the Christian parliamentary majority, has led to unprecedented scars on its historical relationship with Christians, and this is what necessitates it to reconsider its initiative as it gives preference to the candidate of the "resistance" axis, under the pretext of the difficulty of marketing it unless it takes into account the lack of entering into a challenge with the Shiite duo.
In this context, he asks about what dictated that Paris did not take into account the rejection of the majority of forces in the Christian "street" to nominate Frangieh instead of presenting a balanced initiative by nominating a figure who stands in the middle of the road between the "resistance" axis and the opposition forces that intersected with the Free Patriotic Movement over the nomination of former minister Jihad Azour.
Additionally, the Arab diplomatic source told Asharq Al-Awsat: "If Paris is looking behind the marketing of its initiative to move the stagnant waters in the political sense of the word, and as a way of testing its intentions, perhaps it will push towards pressure on the opposition to agree to run the presidential battle with a candidate competing with Frangieh, then the last election session allowed it to record a negative "superiority" by the number of votes on the candidate of the "resistance" axis."
Therefore, it is currently facing an equation that does not allow it to stick to Frangieh's candidacy, prompting it to reconsider its initiative to create a presidential plan that opens the door to search for a consensual candidate that does not challenge any party.
The same source confirms that Paris has become convinced that the last election session has led to a result that it cannot overcome, to the effect that it stands in front of a Frangieh "marketing complex," but, in return, it will enter into a political clash with the Shiite duo, who clings to its support and refuses to search for a consensual candidate unless Paris secures the political price required for giving up his support.
He asks, does the price required to be presented to the Shiite duo remain under the ceiling of guaranteeing Hezbollah that the future President will not stab him in the back or conspire against the resistance? Or does the price go beyond borders to the region, leading to bartering his election for lifting US and European sanctions imposed on Iran?
In this context, the diplomatic source says that Hezbollah differs in its approach to the presidential election from others, as it deals with it from a regional angle, allowing Iran to improve its terms in its negotiations with the United States.
On the other hand, an Arab diplomatic source keeping pace with the prevailing atmosphere within the five-party committee for Lebanon told Asharq Al-Awsat that the "internal doors" are still closed to electing the President, blaming Hezbollah for its insistence on arrogance instead of taking the initiative to evaluate the results of the last election session.
This is what calls for the majority of the Lebanese to bet that the antidote will come from abroad, as long as it does not change the presidential options, which opens the door to question the role of the international community in dropping the name of a president from outside the agenda of the parliamentary blocs, provided that it does not constitute a challenge to any party. Otherwise, the Lebanese will spend a summer without a president, perhaps for a long time.