French Envoy Le Drian set to visit Beirut next Monday

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2023-07-11 | 00:35
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French Envoy Le Drian set to visit Beirut next Monday
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French Envoy Le Drian set to visit Beirut next Monday

All eyes are turning toward what the French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian will bring with him to Beirut in his second visit next Monday, which is supposed to include messages to local powers from the "Quintet Meeting" parties (the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar) in case it is held next Thursday.

This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.
However, reports indicate the lack of 'enthusiasm' from France and Egypt for the meeting before Le Drian's trip to Lebanon.

Additionally, concerned sources did not express optimism about the possibility of any looming breakthrough, expressing clear doubts about Le Drian's ability to reach a political consensus, specifically regarding the idea of the proposed dialogue.

Therefore, the coming week will be a pivotal station whose conclusions will draw the directions of the political deadlock, which will become more affected with the vacancy in the governance of the Banque du Liban (BDL) after the end of the term of the current governor Riad Salameh at the end of this month.

Le Drian's dialogue proposal is based on the "negative equilibrium" that the presidential election session reached on June 14. Thus the French initiative collides with the almost "Christian consensus" against the nomination of the leader of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh.

Furthermore, some sources stressed that Le Drian's previous round witnessed the first divergence between France and Hezbollah since Macron's visit following the Beirut Port blast.

Indeed, the French envoy did not present a new initiative to the Hezbollah delegation he met with, nor did he announce his abandonment of the old initiative, but it was evident in the discussions that the French were closer to the idea of a "third candidate."

Meanwhile, the Hezbollah delegation made it clear that their interpretation of the session's results differed from the French interpretation and that Frangieh's victory in the first session with 51 votes was not a negative balance, while the other candidate (Michel Moawad) received 36 votes after 11 electoral sessions.

The delegation affirmed that "we represent a balanced and united team against a temporarily converging team around a candidate. We have gone through bitter experiences, and we need assurances of a president who does not stab us in the back. It is never possible to abandon Frangieh." As for the dialogue, "we are fully open to it and its promoters, provided that it is limited to the presidential file."

However, visitors conveyed on Monday that the Speaker of the Parliament, Nabih Berri, stated, "Le Drian is returning on the 17th of this month, and he is supposed to carry an invitation for dialogue."

He indicated that "the dialogue will be general, not bilateral, and we have set up the dialogue table in the Parliament and prefer it to be there, although the French proposed it to be at the Pine Residence, and some suggested it to be outside of Lebanon."
Berri also emphasized that he "will participate in the dialogue through a representative for him and informed Le Drian that "I will not call for or sponsor the dialogue because I am a party."

When asked whether the French envoy had obtained the consent of the other parties for the dialogue, he replied, "We will see when he arrives."

Meanwhile, sources close to the Speaker stated he has high hopes for the Saudi-Iranian agreement, as "its positive repercussions are becoming evident in all areas of the region, and its effects have started to unfold." He considered that "these effects must appear in Lebanon, no matter how delayed they may be."

However, after Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati clarified that he "will not cover an extension for Salameh" and that "the solution to fill the vacancy in the governance of the Central Bank of Lebanon lies in implementing the law that grants powers to his deputy, Wassim Mansouri," Berri commented, saying, "Since the PM has taken a stance against the appointment, I respect this position, although I am convinced that necessity permits prohibitions."

Lack of enthusiasm from France and Egypt regarding convening the Quintet Meeting before Le Drian's visit

While it is almost certain that Mansouri will assume Salameh's responsibilities, concerns still exist regarding the management of the upcoming phase.

In this context, sources close to Hezbollah and Amal Movement stated that some want this matter to be a trap, and whatever happens, it will be blamed on Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.

The sources added that with Mansouri assuming the tasks, he and the Central Bank Council would face two options: either "continue the procedures that Salameh used to take regarding circulars and Sayrafa platform, and therefore it will be said that he was right, considering that these procedures are detailed based on his laws," or Mansouri adheres to his position regarding these procedures, which he deems illegal, leading to a significant surge in the USD exchange rate and prices, pushing the country into chaos and prompting opportunists to launch a campaign against Amal Movement and Hezbollah, driving the country toward complete collapse, and everyone will forget Riad Salameh.

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