Russia's warning to Lebanon: Israel's scorched-earth policy to destroy Lebanon

The Israeli war with Hamas is influenced by various factors, with the risk of its expansion growing as the conflict drags on.

Hamas has expressed readiness to confront any extensive ground invasion while focusing on monitoring the actions of major global powers, primarily the United States and Russia.

This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.

Israel has received extensive support for its war in Gaza, with solid backing from Washington and other Western countries. Reports suggest Israel is arming itself with precision missiles to target Hamas infrastructure.

Meanwhile, official Lebanon is striving to prevent the flames of war from reaching its borders, as the country cannot bear the brunt of another confrontation or a devastating war.

In Moscow, the Lebanese ambassador, Chawki Bou Nassar, has intensified his diplomatic efforts, meeting with senior Russian officials who have expressed positive sentiments regarding efforts to preserve Lebanon's security and stability.

Russia offers support during these challenging times and aims to de-escalate tensions and avoid the outbreak of war in southern Lebanon or any other region.

It is worth noting that this Russian concern for Lebanon is unlikely to translate into Russian mediation between Lebanon and Israel for several reasons, including the strained Russian-Israeli relationship and the latter's position on the war in Ukraine.

While Russia stood by Israel to the utmost extent, allowing its aircraft to carry out strikes in Syria against Syrian, Iranian, and Hezbollah positions without interference, Israel failed to reach out to Putin during the Ukrainian crisis. Instead, Israel sided with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Although Moscow may not mediate between Israel and Hezbollah due to the breakdown in Russian-Israeli communication, informed diplomatic sources have suggested that Russia has warned Lebanese officials. Russia recognizes the looming danger and understands the destructive capabilities of Tel Aviv.

The Russian government has no interest in instigating a war in southern Lebanon or entering an unpredictable confrontation. These Russian concerns are not only related to Hezbollah's potential actions but also the possibility of Iran instructing Hezbollah to open the southern Lebanese front, thus embroiling both the group and Lebanon in a comprehensive and unpredictable war.

Given these circumstances, Lebanese officials and Hezbollah must carefully heed the Western and Russian warnings, as there are genuine concerns for the country's safety. The ultimate goal should be to avoid a war not in anyone's interest.

However, the warning came from the Russian Ministry of Defense due to its possession of military and intelligence reports, which indicate that if Hezbollah decides to initiate a war on the southern front, Israel will employ a scorched-earth policy and destroy Lebanon.

The devastation will not be limited to Hezbollah's areas of influence. Israel will not distinguish between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state. Even if Israel does not launch a full-scale ground operation in the south, it is determined to achieve maximum destruction through aerial bombardment, potentially pushing Lebanon back to the Stone Age. Lebanon would not be able to withstand this type of systematic destruction, as Israel has implemented in Gaza.