Southern Lebanon's dilemma: Strategic shifts and resolution 1701

Observers agree that the period before October 7 is distinct from what follows, whether in Gaza, inside Israel, or even in the region as a whole. Some believe repositioning is inevitable due to the end of the confrontations, and the path toward the end may not be extended. However, no one can predict what will happen or when.

This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.

In an interview with "Nidaa Al-Watan," retired strategic expert Colonel Hisham Jaber explains that despite Israel's provocations in southern Lebanon and continuous attempts to lure Hezbollah into expanding the front lines, Hezbollah insists on keeping its movements limited to responding only to Israeli strikes.

By refusing to initiate war, Hezbollah considers the Lebanese situation, refusing to bear responsibility for the potential internal destruction in the event of an expanded confrontation, especially amid US warnings about the dangers of igniting the front and the possibility of targeting Hezbollah's military sites within Lebanon.

Jaber warned, "We are currently standing on the edge of the abyss, and the abyss is a wide war that will not only take place inside Lebanon but will include the countries of the region, and America will also be involved in it, in addition to the Gulf states, in light of what we are witnessing in the Red Sea."

He emphasized that "it is not in the interest of Hezbollah, Iran, or even the United States to ignite and expand the war."

Regarding Israel, Jaber suggested that due to its internal difficulties, especially in the northern region, there is consensus among Israeli newspapers that escalation would be madness. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might take action in southern Lebanon to achieve a specific accomplishment. While this possibility remains unlikely, it cannot be ruled out. In the coming weeks, new developments are crucial.

Possible Scenario

Jaber discussed a scenario that Israel might resort to, involving "targeting a US warship and accusing Hezbollah, potentially prompting the United States to engage in the conflict, even if the truth is later revealed. Especially since Hezbollah had warned of a response within an hour if Israel initiated and targeted locations within Lebanese territory by launching 5000 precision missiles."

In addition, Jaber said that "Israel will inevitably change its military tactics at the beginning of the year, in light of the international pressure on it and its inability to achieve its goals since the beginning of the war. It will turn the war into a delicate security confrontation and may carry out assassinations by aircraft. It will also reposition its forces in Gaza because their survival has become very costly."

End of War and Resolution 1701

According to Jaber, the primary goal of the war remains "the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza." This may be achieved in the coming days after several countries express readiness to receive those wishing to leave and facilitate their exit from the region, leading to changes in the region.

However, Jaber emphasized that any strategic change is very unlikely to affect southern Lebanon, stating that "if there are no occupied lands, there will be no justification for the armed presence of Hezbollah in the south. This becomes an additional reason for not implementing Resolution 1701."

If, for example, Shebaa Farms were placed under the protection of international forces until Lebanon proves its ownership, the armed presence of Hezbollah in the area would lose its justification.

Therefore, Lebanon remains exhausted, standing on the sidelines, waiting for the fires in the region to be extinguished to determine its fate, hopeful that its security will be considered in the calculations of the end of the confrontations.