Lebanon's diplomatic deliberations: French Minister's visit, truce hopes, and regional players

Lebanon is witnessing active diplomatic movements, the latest being the sudden visit by French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné and his meetings with both Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, intending to involve Lebanon in the truce and implement Resolution 1701.

This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese online newspaper Al-Anbaa.

Meanwhile, it was expected that Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry would arrive in Lebanon on Wednesday evening, but the visit was postponed at the last minute after canceling his visit to Cyprus, which was his primary destination, as reported.

Sources familiar with the atmosphere of the talks conducted by the French Foreign Minister with Berri and Mikati reported to "Al-Anbaa" that they primarily focused on implementing Resolution 1701 and deploying the army along the Blue Line without discussing the process of Israel's withdrawal from the Shebaa Farms and Kfarchouba Hills, as rumored because the US envoy Amos Hochstein handles this matter. 

Séjourné did not address it directly or indirectly, but on the other hand, France expressed readiness to contribute whatever was necessary to cover the army's needs of equipment and supplies, emphasizing the necessity for Hezbollah to retreat a few kilometers northward to allow Israel to return settlers to their colonies.

In this context, retired military expert Brigadier General Naji Malaeb, in an interview with "Al-Anbaa," indicated that apparently a framework agreement has been reached in Paris between Egyptian and Qatari intelligence leaders from the Arab side and the Israeli intelligence official regarding a prisoner exchange.

This agreement was announced in Qatar and leaked by some, revealing that Israel objected to many of its clauses. Still, caution must be exercised in Lebanon if it proceeds to implementation because the devil lies in the details. 

Israel always seeks to include ambiguous clauses that it can benefit from when implementation begins.

Regarding Lebanon, Malaeb considered that "Lebanon only has the US guarantee obtained by Hochstein, and the truce must be withdrawn from the southern front." 

He said, "It seems that the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister are not far from insisting on the demands that Hezbollah must agree to."

"It is true that Lebanon does not want war, but after 124 days of fighting in southern Lebanon, there are at least a thousand injuries in Israel, and this is a significant action. 

And if Israel were ready to open this front, it would not have hesitated to do so from the first day of the confrontation," he continued.

In addition, Malaeb revealed that the French has offered the Lebanese army if there is a shortage of equipment, soldiers, vehicles, and more, as announced by the Lebanese Foreign Minister if the army is deployed in the south alongside UNIFIL to implement Resolution 1701.

Malaeb believes that the guarantee not to widen the front is governed by two factors: Firstly, Israel, which wants to expand the war but is not ready as it is fighting in Gaza, and Hezbollah is prepared to absorb any attack and thus transfer operations into Israeli territory. 

It has only used a specific type of missile so far, not the accurate ones, but it avoids involving Lebanon in a war whose outcome it already knows.

Secondly, while Hezbollah considers its Lebanese background, its decision remains with Iran. As long as Iran extends its military messages through Yemen and Iraq, I believe that the Iranians will postpone the Lebanese front and will not open or expand in the foreseeable future from Iran's perspective.