Awaiting progress: Inside the Quintet Committee's presidential endeavors

In the presidential context, internally, after the movement of ambassadors of the "Quintet Committee" countries in Beirut, the committee awaits the next step to be decided in its efforts to advance the presidential file. 

This article is originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Al-Joumhouria.

The waiting period may be long because the news related to this committee so far does not contain anything heartening or conducive to raising optimism.

"Al-Joumhouria learned that this conclusion was brought back by visitors from the capital of an Arab state that is a member of the "Quintet Committee," where they confirmed to senior officials what they had experienced: "Nothing is ready with the 'Quintet' so far, and it has no idea being matured on the fire. "

"The matter is mainly that the committee countries have conflicting positions on moving forward with the presidential file in Lebanon at this stage. They instructed their ambassadors in Lebanon to start moving, and the initial assessment of this movement was very positive, with great satisfaction from the results of the meeting held by the ambassadors of the five countries with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri," the source said.

According to what the visitors conveyed, based on their conversations with political and non-political levels in the Arab capital, "matters are still at the beginning of the line, or more precisely, at the beginning of the discussion on how to crystallize solutions for the presidential crisis, which means that the issue still requires some time."

"This is specifically after the 'Quintet Committee' was about to hold a meeting at the level of foreign ministers, attended by the ambassadors of the committee countries in Beirut, perhaps in Riyadh or Paris.

Still, there is an ongoing debate among 'Quintet' members about holding this meeting before the committee's envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian's visit to Beirut or after this visit," the visitors said.

Informed sources close to the "Quintet" in Beirut confirmed to "Al-Joumhouria" that "the meeting of the committee's foreign ministers has been preliminarily decided and will be held later, possibly soon." 

In addition, reliable sources revealed to "Al-Joumhouria" that signals received by high levels through 'Quintet' channels indicate that the delay in convening the committee at the ministerial level is due to an urgent adjustment in the priorities agenda, as the situation in Gaza has progressed beyond others.

The member of the 'Quintet Committee' and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently focused on diplomatic efforts to establish the long-term truce being worked on in the Gaza Strip.

While the presidential file is characterized by urgency according to the confirmations of all international envoys, it seems, according to diplomatic estimates, to have moved to second place after resolving the southern file, mainly related to the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, where if the truce is declared in Gaza, it will automatically withdraw from the south front. This needs quick solutions.

According to these estimates, consolidating this truce in the border area, providing security and stability on both sides of the border, is linked to the success of the efforts being made by the US mediator Amos Hochstein to resolve the issue of the land borders definitively and to reach a political solution to prevent this front from slipping into a wide war. 

There are indications of significant progress in this regard, which will become clearer in Hochstein's next visit to the region, including Beirut.

It is noteworthy in this context that the Israeli media reflected what it described as positives about the meetings Hochstein held in Israel earlier this week before his return to Washington, where he referred to what he called "positive signs" for calming between Israel and Hezbollah, without specifying their nature or delving into any of them. 

A source familiar with Hochstein's mission in Israel stated that he discussed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant his proposal regarding new understandings regarding the borders, and this proposal for calming between Hezbollah and Israel will resemble the understandings that ended the fighting round in 1996.

What is striking here is that these "positives" contradict the assumptions surrounding Hochstein's return from Tel Aviv to Washington and his failure to visit Beirut, where this return was interpreted as a failure for Hochstein in Israel, and that his efforts clashed with Israeli rigidity.

Meanwhile, official sources confirmed to "Al-Joumhouria" that the visits of the envoys to Beirut all converge around cooling the Lebanese front and distancing this country from the Israeli war.

The sources revealed warnings conveyed by foreign politicians and military officials to Lebanon, indicating the necessity for Lebanon to take Israeli threats of attacking Lebanon seriously, which was reflected in fears that the Lebanese southern front could become a tinderbox for a widespread war.

This concern was expressed by many envoys, including the British Foreign Minister David Cameron and the French Foreign Minister Stéphane Sejourné, who emphasized the utmost necessity for calming in the south and keeping the dangers away from Lebanon through reaching solutions that prevent slipping into expanding the war, which certainly relies on the full implementation of the provisions of Resolution 1701.