A report by Wissam Nasrallah, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine
Some view it as inevitable, while others see it as an event that could transform the region and shift the global balance of power. This is the potential comprehensive war between Hezbollah and Israel, and the question is: how might such a conflict unfold if it occurs?
Many Western newspapers and think tanks have rushed to address this question.
CNN argues that both sides have been preparing for the next war since the July 2006 conflict, presenting a scenario where Hezbollah launches between 2,500 and 3,000 rockets and shells daily for weeks, targeting Israeli military sites and cities. Ironically, the newspaper notes that Hezbollah fired about 4,000 rockets during the 2006 war, which lasted 34 days, averaging only 117 rockets per day.
In 2006, Israeli warplanes bombed Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport, but according to the newspaper, the next war could see Hezbollah targeting Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv. The report adds that Haifa, which was hit by Hezbollah rockets in 2006, may face attacks on additional cities deeper within Israel.
The US Center for Strategic and International Studies revealed that Hezbollah possesses between 120,000 and 200,000 rockets, including tens of thousands of short-range, unguided ballistic missiles like the Zilzal-1 and Zilzal-2, which can carry over half a ton of explosives, as well as guided missiles like the Fateh-110, of which Hezbollah has several hundred.
The report indicates that Israel will rely on the Iron Dome system to intercept the barrage of rockets from Hezbollah. However, given the enormous volume, this system might come under significant strain, forcing Tel Aviv to respond with intensive airstrikes aimed at destroying rocket launch platforms and weapon storage facilities.
The center also anticipates that the conflict might escalate to a limited ground invasion of Lebanon by Israel.
In addition to the intensity of the rocket fire, Israel faces a new challenge in the form of drones, which have proven effective in penetrating defenses and reaching military targets. The principle of "unified fronts" or "theater integration" has also emerged as a new factor.
The next war, if it happens, might not be confined to Hezbollah and Israel alone but could involve other parties, such as the Houthis and Islamic resistance groups in Iraq. The leader of one of these groups, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, has stated that if the US supports an Israeli attack on Lebanon, US interests in the region, particularly in Iraq, will become targets.
With all these analyses, any scenario for the onset and potential expansion of the war is plausible, but its outcome and results remain contingent on the battlefield.